MALAYBALAY CITY (MindaNews/25 Nov) – National and international attention is now riveted on the Philippines after the Monday massacre of the wife of a gubernatorial bet in Ampatuan town in Maguindanao, two female lawyers and several journalists, in what could be a foreshadowing of how violent next year’s elections would be in that war-torn and warlord-dominated province. Aside from expressing shock over the sheer insanity of the tragedy, the condemnations coming from media groups, religious leaders and bodies like the United Nations and European Union also carry a common message and demand: bring the perpetrators to justice.

Efforts to get to the bottom of the Ampatuan Massacre may yet suffer the same setback. For even if Malacañang feigns seriousness in dealing with the carnage it is doubtful it would apply the full force of the law against the suspects, the Ampatuans, who are known allies of the administration. For sure, Arroyo must have been saddened and angered by the mass murder. But her grief and anger will not necessarily result into a firm resolve to give justice to the victims. Her political indebtedness to the Ampatuans will stand in the way of justice. The most that the law enforcers can do is look for fall guys and buy time until the public reverts to a state of gradual amnesia about the incident.

In retrospect, the massacre was just a tragedy waiting to happen. It’s part of the cumulative effects of warlord politics which successive governments have failed or refused to confront head on. Administration after administration chose to ignore the practice of politicians in the region of amassing firearms (mostly unlicensed) and building private armies to ensure victory in elections until it reached a level which the state finds impossible to stop. Add to that the police personnel who have become personal bodyguards of these politicians.

In a talk before youth leaders in Mindanao in Davao City on November 29, 2008, Secretary Norberto Gonzales said there are some 200,000 loose firearms in the island. He hastened to add however that in Sulu alone the military estimated that there are already 200,000 loose firearms.

Gonzales declared in the same forum that the government would not ask for the surrender of these firearms, only to have them properly accounted and registered. Registration, he said, would enable the government to know how a particular firearm is being used. After so many kidnappings, political killings, rido (vendetta killings) and other forms of lawlessness, the government, speaking through the secretary, pretended it did not know how these weapons are being used. Maybe the  Ampatuan Massacre has given Mr. Gonzales an idea?

Gonzales’ statistics on the loose firearms suggests that the problem has reached a tipping point. Assuming a 1:1 man-firearm ratio, the number of loose firearm holders in Mindanao (presumably most of them in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao) is roughly the equivalent of the entire armed forces. One can only wonder how it has mutated to such stage considering the huge budgets for the military and police.

The problem can only be expected to worsen in the coming years given the laxity in imposing the rules on loose firearms, the reality of patronage politics, corruption, culture of impunity and resignation to violence, compelling factors that have contributed to the Philippines’ gradual yet steady decline into a failed state. Maguindanao signals that regression.

(MindaViews is the opinion section of MindaNews. H. Marcos C. Mordeno may be reached at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it )

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