The total number of hours of daily brownouts this year, however, has not reached the level of the early 1990s when brownouts were longer and generators were bestsellers.

He said that while the current situation is far from being a crisis level, “the widening gap between power generation capacity and surging demand is too serious to ignore.”

As of March 3, Mindanao’s available capacity is 808 megawatts to meet a peak load of 1,318 or  a deficit of 510 mw, the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP)  said. NGCP is the country's only utility responsible for transmitting high-voltage power from generators to distributors. It does not own or operate and maintain any power generation and distribution facilities.

NGCP had earlier warned that the capacity of the Agus power plants, source of hydroelectricity in Mindanao, has been reduced to as much as 60 percent and the Pulangi plant to 80 percent.

The National Power Corporation's (Napocor) Agus Hydro-electric Power Plants have a total available capacity of 110 mw out of the total rated capacity of 727 mw. Pulangi Plant, also owned by Napocor, is running at only 30 mw out of the total rated capacity of 255 mw.

Iligan Diesel Power Plant, which has been unavailable since February 1, is alreadyonline and providing 35 mw to the grid.

The hydroelectric power plants run under normal conditions, when the water level of Lake Lanao is at least 701 meters above sea level (masl)

El Nino reduced the water level to what is now a critical level of 699.06 masl as of March 3, below the 699.15 minimum allowable drawdown  level. 

“Impossible”

The Mindanao Economic Development Council (MEDCo)  released a list of generating plants in Mindanao showing that the total generating capacity of the combined diesel, geothermal, hydro and oil thermal is 1,877.73 mw of which 997.65 is from hydro, 457 from diesel, 210 from coal, 108.60 from oil thermal and 104.48 is from geothermal.

Of the total generating capacity of 1,877.73 mw, only 808 mw is available. If all the power plants were running at full capacity, 1,877.73 mw would have been enough to meet the peak load of 1,318 mw and still have a reserve of  559.73. As of March 3, the total deficit is 510 mw.

Dureza told the February 25 meeting of stakeholders that reduction in generation capacity is due to  “El Nino effect; plant maintenance; unit derating; and deactivated shutdown.”

But Guido Delgado,  president of the National Power Corporation from 1994 to 1998, told MindaNews the problem had been foreseen but ignored.

“It is impossible for the administration not to have foreseen the situation,” he said.

From January to June 2009, according to Dureza, the power generation mix was 53% hydro, 19% coal, 17% oil,  and 11% geothermal.  There was no El Nino episode last year.

For the same period in 2010, the power generation mix had become  34% hydro, 33% oil, 22% coal and 11% geothermal.

Delgado recalled that during the Aquino administration (1986 to 1992), “the deficiency was 100 to 150 mw and that was giving us 10 to 12 hours of brownouts. This was because our peak at that time was just around 800 mw and 3/4 of the power was coming from the hydros.”

Delgado was then  chair of the Cagayan de Oro Chamber of Commerce and convenor of Mindanao Against Darkness (MAD).  In 1992. Aquino’s successor,  President Fidel Ramos, appointed him board member of NPC and later president.

“Today the peak  hits 1,300 mw and the hydros are down to 50% (approximately) of the system capacity.  So it couldn't have been just El Nino to explain the shortage because the hydros are now a smaller contributor to the system.  The government really failed to put in place the required power capacity.  The government was aware of this fact. And something could have been done about it,” Delgado said.

Delgado  said government “was also aware that one of the bigger problems of Mindanao is the low price of power -- it is as if we were still living in the age of unlimited hydro capacity. So the low price of electricity has not encouraged investors in the power sector in Mindanao.  The last government project was the 200mw STEAG plant which I signed three days before I retired.  I got a lot of criticism for it especially from the Osmenas claiming that I signed a ‘midnight’ deal.  But as I said, and the situation today is bearing me out, only a Mindanawon in Napocor will have the interest and the guts to put up a power plant in Mindanao”

He said the National Economic Development Authority “was criticizing me for signing the power plant.  But I said I wanted to sign it because I was predicting that there will be no Mindanawon NPC president  once I retire. And therefore no one will think of Mindanao's power situation.  True enough, the current situation is proving me right.”

Problem 10 years ago hounds present

“That's why I feel so bad.  I had been telling people that Mindanao had a problem 10 years ago,” Delgado said.

Dr. Fermin Adriano, MEDCo consultant , was quoted  by the OP-Min as saying, "More than three years ago, I presented a paper which included a policy recommendation that the power situation in Mindanao should be looked into by MEDCo because it would surely have an impact on the island's development in the future. As usual, nobody listened and we are now again in a firefighting mode."

In his paper titled “Review Of The Government’s Mindanao Peace And Development Paradigms,” Fermin raised looming power crisis as one of the emerging issues.

"Mindanao faces a looming power crisis as there is hardly new power generation projects being undertaken in the island. With the possible operations of huge mining firms within three to five years from now, the take-off of business out-sourcing sector, and with the rising demand for energy of an increasing population in Mindanao, it is imperative that the process of addressing this critical concern be done as soon as possible."

“So what did MEDCo do?,” asked a former OP-Min official in a social networking forum.  “If power supply is deficient, why are big-ticket investments coming in? It doesn’t wash,” he said.

“We’ll have to ask MEDCo about that,” an incumbent government official replied.

He added: “On the second question, obviously nagka brown-out yata when power/energy sector and the planning/investment entities of the government were supposed to work together to prepare utilities for the growing demands of the population and new industries. Also, while everyone perhaps is thinking about investments to generate employment, incomes/revenues and better services, there was a patent neglect of the fact that with the unabated growth of population and industries, the corresponding ability of the energy sector to generate proportionally required power cannot logically be met without increasing its generating capacities.”

But who’s accountable?

For Delgado, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) “is also to blame for this mess.”

“This World Bank subsidiary is supporting this so-called Mindanao aggregation of electric cooperatives.   Their idea was to aggregate all the co-ops into one large company and then they will have the ‘power’ to negotiate a good price for Mindanao.  Obviously it didn't work as we are all facing the shortages in Mindanao now.  They forget the simple rule in credit: the credit of the group is only as good as the credit of the weakest part of the group.  The EU, in a much larger scale, is facing a similar problem  now with Greece's and most likely Spain's economy falling apart due to bad credit and fiscal decisions of these governments.  The aggregation concept will have the same problem albeit in a smaller and simpler way,” Delgado noted.

He said an even bigger problem “is the power industry structure that the EPIRA (Electric Power Industry Reform Act of 2001) had laid down.”

“You have PSALM (Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management) that is not responsible for power generation but is holding the purse/budget for NPC (National Power Corporation). You have NPC who is the supplier of last resort with no funds for bringing in power nor is it allowed under the EPIRA.  In other words, even if NPC had a solution, it cannot enter into any power sales contract because it has no funds and even if it had the funds, the law prohibits that.  You would think now, where will the consumers and citizens run to?  The Department of Energy (DOE)  has no power to do anything either.  The DOE is only Vice Chairman in all government power companies of any relevance.  The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) is limited to tariff regulation and cannot impose any contractual obligation between two private parties who may want to set up a power generation part,” Delgado said.

“In short, NO ONE in government is responsible for the power shortage in Mindanao.  No one is accountable to us in Mindanao.  So no matter how we in Mindanao cry in anger, the government cannot do anything about it without stretching the limits of the law.  Think about it: if the government could have done something about it, why has nothing been done about it?  I rest my case,” said Delgado.  (Carolyn O. Arguillas/MindaNews)

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