Duterte widens lead by 12% in April 12-17 Pulse Asia survey

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DAVAO CITY (MindaNews/24 April) – Presidential frontrunner Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte widened his lead by 12 percentage points with 34% of the voters nationwide choosing him if elections were held today, compared with 22% for Senator Grace Poe in the Pulse Asia Survey for ABS-CBN on April 12 to 17, the survey ending just as the outrage over his controversial rape remarks was beginning.

The survey results, released by Pulse Asia on Sunday morning, April 24, showed Vice President Jejomar Binay and Senator Mar Roxas were statistically tied at 19% and 18%, respectively while Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago got only 2% .

Duterte gained two percentage points more from the previous Pulse Asia survey for ABS-CBN conducted on April 5 to 10 and released on April 19, from 32% to 34% in this latest survey and widened his lead against Poe from seven percentage points in the previous survey to 12 in this latest survey.

Nationwide, only Duterte and Santiago gained percentage points from the previous survey to the April 12 to 17 survey – Duterte with two percentage points (32% to 34%) and Santiago with one percentage point (1% to 2%).

Poe and Binay lost several percentage points (3 percentage points for Poe from 25% to 22%) and Binay 1 percentage point from 20% to 19% while Roxas was steady at 18%.

Up and up

Duterte lost one percentage point in the Visayas (29% to 28%), was steady in the Balance of Luzon at 20%, but gained in all other categories: 11 percentage points more in the National Capital Region (NCR or Metro Manila), from 32% in the previous survey to 43%; four percentage points more in Mindanao, from 57% to 61%; 10 percentage points more in socio-economic classes ABC from 37% to 47%; and one percentage point more in Class D from 32% to 33%; and three percentage points from 31% 34% in Class E.

In the NCR, Duterte topped with 43%, almost double Poe’s 22%, more than twice Binay’s 19% and over four times more than Roxas’ 11%.

In the Balance of Luzon, where Duterte is weakest, Poe leads with 30% followed by Binay’s 26% , Duterte’s 20%, Roxas’ 14% and Santiago’s 2%.

In the Visayas, Roxas leads with 34% followed by Duterte’s 28%, Poe’2 20%, Binay’s 15% and Santiago’s 1%. Roxas, Santiago and Poe hail from the Visayas. Duterte was born in Maasin, Leyte in the Visayas in 1945 but his family migrated to Mindanao in 1948.

In Mindanao, where Duterte’s widest lead is, six out of ten Mindanawons are voting for him, based on the survey results of 61% against Roxas’ 17%, Poe’s 10%, Binay’s 8% and Santiago’s 1%.

Duterte also leads in all socio-economic classes. In Class ABC, Duterte’s lead is more than thrice his rivals – 47% followed by the three who are statistically tied — Binay and Roxas with 15% each, and Poe with 14% — and Santiago with 3%.

In Class D, he leads with 33%, 10 percentage points more than Poe’s 23%. Binay got 20%, Roxas 18% and Santiago 2%.

In Class E, Duterte again leads with 34% or 11 percentage points more than Poe’s 23%, Roxas’ 22%, Binay’s 17% and Santiago’s 1%.

Rape remarks

Political analysts said Duterte’s rape remarks could affect his lead in the next survey. The latest Pulse Asia Survey, however, ended April 17 just as the video clip on the rape joke had gone viral.

The next surveys after April 17 will determine if his remarks did affect his ratings. Another survey the public is looking forward to is after the last Presidential Debate on April 24.

A video clip from Duterte’s April 12 speech at the Amoranto Stadium in Quezon City, went viral and sparked outrage not only from his critics and the undecided voters but also from among his supporters.

Duterte said that upon seeing the body of an Australian missionary killed during a hostage-taking in Davao City in August 1989, he said in Fiipino, “Son…b.. ch, what a pity. What came to my mind was, they raped her, lined up for her. I was angry because she was raped. But she was so beautiful, the mayor should have been first. What a pity.”

Amid calls for him to apologize, Duterte told television reporters in Davao City afternoon of April 17 that he did not care if his remarks would cost him the presidency as he refused to apologize for uttering what he described was “gutter language” in his Amoranto speech.

In Bacolod City on April 18, he insisted he would not apologize but morning of April 19, the Duterte-Cayetano camp in an attempt to control the damage, sent media outlets a five-paragraph statement purportedly coming from Duterte, apologizing for what he said and that “there was no intention of disrespecting our women and those who have been victims of this horrible crime. Sometimes my mouth can get the better of me.”

CNN Philippines, in a report from Iloilo City on April 19 titled “Duterte’s ‘apology’ creates confusion,” said Duterte told reporters there that “he knows nothing about this statement.”

The April 19 statement e-mailed by the Duterte-Cayetano camp was not posted on Duterte’s Facebook account. But his videotaped interview in Davao City on April 17 was posted.

The five Presidential candidates are attending the third and last Presidential debate on Sunday evening, April 24, at he University of Pangasinan. (Carolyn O. Arguillas/ MindaNews)

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7 COMMENTS

  1. DUTERTE SOARS EVEN HIGHER & STRONGER THAN THE VIRAL STORM!

    AMID PUBLIC outrage over a viral video, university-based political analysts STILL consider Mayor Duterte’s PHENOMENAL surge as STRONG. In fact, his poll ratings are spiking higher as the electoral momentum is CLEARLY skewed in his favor.

    SCIENTIFIC surveys suggest that he commands the most ‘UPVOTES’ since the start of the campaign. Unlike his closest opponents, Mayor Duterte nets a positive average growth rate of 2% or roughly 810,000 popular votes a week.

    NOT one of the credible poll analysts could ever contradict the STEADY movement of his numbers as opposed to the DECLINING survey performances of Pres. BS Aquino’s shadow candidate, Sen. Grace Poe, and his SPURNED standard bearer Mar Roxas. Both are slumped together in the electoral plateau at negative .02% apiece. Simply put, each of them is LOSING at least 81,000 popular votes for each survey week.

    AS to Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago, she still DAWDLES at the foothill with a negative .04% while VP Jejomar Binay seems to waltz up and down STILL trying to figure out how he ended up at the tail end of the race. Among the candidates thus far, he is the BIGGEST loser at negative .08% a week or 2.26 million votes a couple of weeks into the homestretch.

    GIVEN all these, can Mayor Duterte overcome the viral challenge? UP political science professor Aries Arugay believes that Mayor Duterte can very well maintain his insurmountable lead. On the other hand, UST political science professor Edmund Tayao thinks that the voters’ sentiments could go either way. For his part, DLSU assistant political science professor senses a relapse among the mayor’s soft voters in favor of Sen. Poe. But then, as another DLSU professor Julio Tehankee says, the leading candidate WILL WIN if he survives the backlash of the controversial gaffe.

    DESPITE the nuanced predictions on the possibility of a fall-out over the inappropriate remark, I couldn’t help BUT affirm the State University professor Arugay’s view on the issue. For one, ultra-conservatism, as exemplified by the Catholic Church hierarchy, does NOT have a credible command vote UNLIKE the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC). It cannot impose its choice to the flock. The Catholic bishops have done it before to no avail. Their anointed bet, JC delos Reyes (Ang Kapatiran Party), lost to the eventual winner Pres. Aquino whom they even branded as “anti-life”. The bishops’ candidate only got around LESS than 1% of the total voters’ turn-out.

    EVEN if the more progressive GABRIELA preferential votes are padded up to the ultra-conservative Catholic votes, they can ONLY generate around 2.12% or approximately 858,600 popular votes WHICH still fall short of the consolidated WEEKLY conversions of Mayor Duterte in his resurgent bailiwicks of Metro Manila, Mindanao and the Vizayas of approximately 899,000 votes or practically 2.21% of the estimated voters’ turn-out of 75%.

    ESSENTIALLY, Mayor Duterte can still take a wider swath of AT LEAST 1.9% in the next round of ABS-CBN and PULSE Asia survey. Just yesterday, the SWS survey conducted AFTER the verbal lapse came up with a quite TELLING result with Mayor Duterte all the MORE increasing his poll standing by 6%, thus effectively PROVING his patent INVINCIBILITY over any other peripheral issues being thrown his way.

    SO yet again, will the feisty mayor be able to RIDE OUT the viral storm? Yes, DEFINITELY, notwithstanding the ultra-conservative attacks against his person and what he stands for politically. What is CLEAR to every well-meaning Filipino voters now is that ALL electoral classes are CROSSING partisan lines just to give Mayor Duterte a FIGHTING CHANCE, if not a WELL-DESERVED victory, in the polls!

  2. DUTERTE SOARS EVEN HIGHER and STRONGER THAN THE VIRAL STORM!

    AMID PUBLIC outrage over a viral video, university-based political analysts STILL consider Mayor Duterte’s PHENOMENAL surge as STRONG. In fact, his poll ratings are spiking higher as the electoral momentum is CLEARLY skewed in his favor.

    SCIENTIFIC surveys suggest that he commands the most ‘UPVOTES’ since the start of the campaign. Unlike his closest opponents, Mayor Duterte nets a positive average growth rate of 2% or roughly 810,000 popular votes a week.

    NOT one of the credible poll analysts could ever contradict the STEADY movement of his numbers as opposed to the DECLINING survey performances of Pres. BS Aquino’s shadow candidate, Sen. Grace Poe, and his SPURNED standard bearer Mar Roxas. Both are slumped together in the electoral plateau at negative .02% apiece. Simply put, each of them is LOSING at least 81,000 popular votes for each survey week.

    AS to Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago, she still DAWDLES at the foothill with a negative .04% while VP Jejomar Binay seems to waltz up and down STILL trying to figure out how he ended up at the tail end of the race. Among the candidates thus far, he is the BIGGEST loser at negative .08% a week or 2.26 million votes a couple of weeks into the homestretch.

    GIVEN all these, can Mayor Duterte overcome the viral challenge? UP political science professor Aries Arugay believes that Mayor Duterte can very well maintain his insurmountable lead. On the other hand, UST political science professor Edmund Tayao thinks that the voters’ sentiments could go either way. For his part, DLSU assistant political science professor senses a relapse among the mayor’s soft voters in favor of Sen. Poe. But then, as another DLSU professor Julio Tehankee says, the leading candidate WILL WIN if he survives the backlash of the controversial gaffe.

    DESPITE the nuanced predictions on the possibility of a fall-out over the inappropriate remark, I couldn’t help BUT affirm the State University professor Arugay’s view on the issue. For one, ultra-conservatism, as exemplified by the Catholic Church hierarchy, does NOT have a credible command vote UNLIKE the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC). It cannot impose its choice to the flock. The Catholic bishops have done it before to no avail. Their anointed bet, JC delos Reyes (Ang Kapatiran Party), lost to the eventual winner Pres. Aquino whom they even branded as “anti-life”. The bishops’ candidate only got around LESS than 1% of the total voters’ turn-out.

    EVEN if the more progressive GABRIELA preferential votes are padded up to the ultra-conservative Catholic votes, they can ONLY generate around 2.12% or approximately 858,600 popular votes WHICH still fall short of the consolidated WEEKLY conversions of Mayor Duterte in his resurgent bailiwicks of Metro Manila, Mindanao and the Vizayas of approximately 899,000 votes or practically 2.21% of the estimated voters’ turn-out of 75%.

    ESSENTIALLY, Mayor Duterte can still take a wider swath of AT LEAST 1.9% in the next round of ABS-CBN and PULSE Asia survey. Just yesterday, the SWS survey conducted AFTER the verbal lapse came up with a quite TELLING result with Mayor Duterte all the MORE increasing his poll standing by 6%, thus effectively PROVING his patent INVINCIBILITY over any other peripheral issues being thrown his way.

    SO yet again, will the feisty mayor be able to RIDE OUT the viral storm? Yes, DEFINITELY, notwithstanding the ultra-conservative attacks against his person and what he stands for politically. What is CLEAR to every well-meaning Filipino voters now is that ALL electoral classes are CROSSING partisan lines just to give Mayor Duterte a FIGHTING CHANCE, if not a WELL-DESERVED victory, in the polls!

  3. DUTERTE SOARS EVEN HIGHER & STRONGER THAN THE VIRAL STORM!

    AMID PUBLIC outrage over a viral video, university-based political analysts STILL consider Mayor Duterte’s PHENOMENAL surge as STRONG. In fact, his poll ratings are spiking higher as the electoral momentum is CLEARLY skewed in his favor.

    SCIENTIFIC surveys suggest that he commands the most ‘UPVOTES’ since the start of the campaign. Unlike his closest opponents, Mayor Duterte nets a positive average growth rate of 2% or roughly 810,000 popular votes a week.

    NOT one of the credible poll analysts could ever contradict the STEADY movement of his numbers as opposed to the DECLINING survey performances of Pres. BS Aquino’s shadow candidate, Sen. Grace Poe, and his SPURNED standard bearer Mar Roxas. Both are slumped together in the electoral plateau at negative .02% apiece. Simply put, each of them is LOSING at least 81,000 popular votes for each survey week.

    AS to Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago, she still DAWDLES at the foothill with a negative .04% while VP Jejomar Binay seems to waltz up and down STILL trying to figure out how he ended up at the tail end of the race. Among the candidates thus far, he is the BIGGEST loser at negative .08% a week or 2.26 million votes a couple of weeks into the homestretch.

    GIVEN all these, can Mayor Duterte overcome the viral challenge? UP political science professor Aries Arugay believes that Mayor Duterte can very well maintain his insurmountable lead. On the other hand, UST political science professor Edmund Tayao thinks that the voters’ sentiments could go either way. For his part, DLSU assistant political science professor senses a relapse among the mayor’s soft voters in favor of Sen. Poe. But then, as another DLSU professor Julio Tehankee says, the leading candidate WILL WIN if he survives the backlash of the controversial gaffe.

    DESPITE the nuanced predictions on the possibility of a fall-out over the inappropriate remark, I couldn’t help BUT affirm the State University professor Arugay’s view on the issue. For one, ultra-conservatism, as exemplified by the Catholic Church hierarchy, does NOT have a credible command vote UNLIKE the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC). It cannot impose its choice to the flock. The Catholic bishops have done it before to no avail. Their anointed bet, JC delos Reyes (Ang Kapatiran Party), lost to the eventual winner Pres. Aquino whom they even branded as “anti-life”. The bishops’ candidate only got around LESS than 1% of the total voters’ turn-out.

    EVEN if the more progressive GABRIELA preferential votes are padded up to the ultra-conservative Catholic votes, they can ONLY generate around 2.12% or approximately 858,600 popular votes WHICH still fall short of the consolidated WEEKLY conversions of Mayor Duterte in his resurgent bailiwicks of Metro Manila, Mindanao and the Vizayas of approximately 899,000 votes or practically 2.21% of the estimated voters’ turn-out of 75%.

    ESSENTIALLY, Mayor Duterte can still take a wider swath of AT LEAST 1.9% in the next round of ABS-CBN and PULSE Asia survey. Just yesterday, the SWS survey conducted AFTER the verbal lapse came up with a quite TELLING result with Mayor Duterte all the MORE increasing his poll standing by 6%, thus effectively PROVING his patent INVINCIBILITY over any other peripheral issues being thrown his way.

    SO yet again, will the feisty mayor be able to RIDE OUT the viral storm? Yes, DEFINITELY, notwithstanding the ultra-conservative attacks against his person and what he stands for politically. What is CLEAR to every well-meaning Filipino voters now is that ALL electoral classes are CROSSING partisan lines just to give Mayor Duterte a FIGHTING CHANCE, if not a WELL-DESERVED victory, in the polls!

  4. DUTERTE SOARS EVEN HIGHER and STRONGER THAN THE VIRAL STORM!

    AMID PUBLIC outrage over a viral video, university-based political analysts STILL consider Mayor Duterte’s PHENOMENAL surge as STRONG. In fact, his poll ratings are spiking higher as the electoral momentum is CLEARLY skewed in his favor.

    SCIENTIFIC surveys suggest that he commands the most ‘UPVOTES’ since the start of the campaign. Unlike his closest opponents, Mayor Duterte nets a positive average growth rate of 2% or roughly 810,000 popular votes a week.

    NOT one of the credible poll analysts could ever contradict the STEADY movement of his numbers as opposed to the DECLINING survey performances of Pres. BS Aquino’s shadow candidate, Sen. Grace Poe, and his SPURNED standard bearer Mar Roxas. Both are slumped together in the electoral plateau at negative .02% apiece. Simply put, each of them is LOSING at least 81,000 popular votes for each survey week.

    AS to Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago, she still DAWDLES at the foothill with a negative .04% while VP Jejomar Binay seems to waltz up and down STILL trying to figure out how he ended up at the tail end of the race. Among the candidates thus far, he is the BIGGEST loser at negative .08% a week or 2.26 million votes a couple of weeks into the homestretch.

    GIVEN all these, can Mayor Duterte overcome the viral challenge? UP political science professor Aries Arugay believes that Mayor Duterte can very well maintain his insurmountable lead. On the other hand, UST political science professor Edmund Tayao thinks that the voters’ sentiments could go either way. For his part, DLSU assistant political science professor senses a relapse among the mayor’s soft voters in favor of Sen. Poe. But then, as another DLSU professor Julio Tehankee says, the leading candidate WILL WIN if he survives the backlash of the controversial gaffe.

    DESPITE the nuanced predictions on the possibility of a fall-out over the inappropriate remark, I couldn’t help BUT affirm the State University professor Arugay’s view on the issue. For one, ultra-conservatism, as exemplified by the Catholic Church hierarchy, does NOT have a credible command vote UNLIKE the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC). It cannot impose its choice to the flock. The Catholic bishops have done it before to no avail. Their anointed bet, JC delos Reyes (Ang Kapatiran Party), lost to the eventual winner Pres. Aquino whom they even branded as “anti-life”. The bishops’ candidate only got around LESS than 1% of the total voters’ turn-out.

    EVEN if the more progressive GABRIELA preferential votes are padded up to the ultra-conservative Catholic votes, they can ONLY generate around 2.12% or approximately 858,600 popular votes WHICH still fall short of the consolidated WEEKLY conversions of Mayor Duterte in his resurgent bailiwicks of Metro Manila, Mindanao and the Vizayas of approximately 899,000 votes or practically 2.21% of the estimated voters’ turn-out of 75%.

    ESSENTIALLY, Mayor Duterte can still take a wider swath of AT LEAST 1.9% in the next round of ABS-CBN and PULSE Asia survey. Just yesterday, the SWS survey conducted AFTER the verbal lapse came up with a quite TELLING result with Mayor Duterte all the MORE increasing his poll standing by 6%, thus effectively PROVING his patent INVINCIBILITY over any other peripheral issues being thrown his way.

    SO yet again, will the feisty mayor be able to RIDE OUT the viral storm? Yes, DEFINITELY, notwithstanding the ultra-conservative attacks against his person and what he stands for politically. What is CLEAR to every well-meaning Filipino voters now is that ALL electoral classes are CROSSING partisan lines just to give Mayor Duterte a FIGHTING CHANCE, if not a WELL-DESERVED victory, in the polls!

  5. DUTERTE SOARS EVEN HIGHER & STRONGER THAN THE VIRAL STORM!

    AMID PUBLIC outrage over a viral video, university-based political analysts STILL consider Mayor Duterte’s PHENOMENAL surge as STRONG. In fact, his poll ratings are spiking higher as the electoral momentum is CLEARLY skewed in his favor.

    SCIENTIFIC surveys suggest that he commands the most ‘UPVOTES’ since the start of the campaign. Unlike his closest opponents, Mayor Duterte nets a positive average growth rate of 2% or roughly 810,000 popular votes a week.

    NOT one of the credible poll analysts could ever contradict the STEADY movement of his numbers as opposed to the DECLINING survey performances of Pres. BS Aquino’s shadow candidate, Sen. Grace Poe, and his SPURNED standard bearer Mar Roxas. Both are slumped together in the electoral plateau at negative .02% apiece. Simply put, each of them is LOSING at least 81,000 popular votes for each survey week.

    AS to Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago, she still DAWDLES at the foothill with a negative .04% while VP Jejomar Binay seems to waltz up and down STILL trying to figure out how he ended up at the tail end of the race. Among the candidates thus far, he is the BIGGEST loser at negative .08% a week or 2.26 million votes a couple of weeks into the homestretch.

    GIVEN all these, can Mayor Duterte overcome the viral challenge? UP political science professor Aries Arugay believes that Mayor Duterte can very well maintain his insurmountable lead. On the other hand, UST political science professor Edmund Tayao thinks that the voters’ sentiments could go either way. For his part, DLSU assistant political science professor senses a relapse among the mayor’s soft voters in favor of Sen. Poe. But then, as another DLSU professor Julio Tehankee says, the leading candidate WILL WIN if he survives the backlash of the controversial gaffe.

    DESPITE the nuanced predictions on the possibility of a fall-out over the inappropriate remark, I couldn’t help BUT affirm the State University professor Arugay’s view on the issue. For one, ultra-conservatism, as exemplified by the Catholic Church hierarchy, does NOT have a credible command vote UNLIKE the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC). It cannot impose its choice to the flock. The Catholic bishops have done it before to no avail. Their anointed bet, JC delos Reyes (Ang Kapatiran Party), lost to the eventual winner Pres. Aquino whom they even branded as “anti-life”. The bishops’ candidate only got around LESS than 1% of the total voters’ turn-out.

    EVEN if the more progressive GABRIELA preferential votes are padded up to the ultra-conservative Catholic votes, they can ONLY generate around 2.12% or approximately 858,600 popular votes WHICH still fall short of the consolidated WEEKLY conversions of Mayor Duterte in his resurgent bailiwicks of Metro Manila, Mindanao and the Vizayas of approximately 899,000 votes or practically 2.21% of the estimated voters’ turn-out of 75%.

    ESSENTIALLY, Mayor Duterte can still take a wider swath of AT LEAST 1.9% in the next round of ABS-CBN and PULSE Asia survey. Just yesterday, the SWS survey conducted AFTER the verbal lapse came up with a quite TELLING result with Mayor Duterte all the MORE increasing his poll standing by 6%, thus effectively PROVING his patent INVINCIBILITY over any other peripheral issues being thrown his way.

    SO yet again, will the feisty mayor be able to RIDE OUT the viral storm? Yes, DEFINITELY, notwithstanding the ultra-conservative attacks against his person and what he stands for politically. What is CLEAR to every well-meaning Filipino voters now is that ALL electoral classes are CROSSING partisan lines just to give Mayor Duterte a FIGHTING CHANCE, if not a WELL-DESERVED victory, in the polls!

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