VP Binay hit for saying evidence in Ampatuan massacre weak

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BULUAN, Maguindanao (MindaNews/11 April) – A member of the Mangudadatu political clan of Maguindanao expressed alarm over the statement issued by United Nationalist Alliance presidential aspirant Vice President Jejomar Binay that the evidence against suspects in the 2009 Maguindanao massacre was weak.

“What evidence was he talking about?” Ibrahim Mangudadatu, former mayor of Buluan, Maguindanao and brother of Gov. Esmael Mangudadatu asked.

“The evidence in the Maguindanao massacre is strong and clear, and yet Binay said it’s weak, so what will happen if he wins? What are we waiting for, that Binay will win and the Ampatuans will be release? It’s frightening,” Mangudadatu said in Filipino on Saturday, April 9, during the visit of Davao City Mayor and presidential candidate Rodrigo Duterte in Buluan.

Binay made the statement on April 5 as he endorsed the candidacy of Sajid Islam Uy Ampatuan, the youngest son of the late Andal Ampatuan, Sr. who was freed on bail in March last year after nearly five years of detention as one of the co-accused in the 2009 massacre in Ampatuan, Maguindanao.

Sajid is running for mayor of Shariff Aguak town in Maguindanao.

He and other family members, including his late father, were tagged as principal suspects in the massacre that left 58 people dead, 32 of them media workers.

Ibrahim and other relatives are supporting Duterte was the guest of honor and speaker during the 80th foundation day of Buluan on Saturday.

Other elected officials belonging to the Mangudadatu clan have thrown their support to Liberal Party bet Mar Roxas.

They are Gov. Mangudadatu, Rep. Zajid Mangudadatu of Maguindanao’s 2nd district, Assemblyman Khadaffy Mangudadatu of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao and Mayor Freddie Mangudadatu of Mangudadatu town.

Ibrahim explained his support for Duterte was personal in nature. He called the Davao mayor a family friend and one who has good vision for the Moro people.

Ibrahim was seen welcoming Duterte with the governor’s son Buluan Vice Mayor King Jhazzer Mangudadatu and Buluan Mayor Lorena Mangudadatu, Ibrahim’s wife.

Ibrahim recalled that Duterte showed sincerity in helping to find the victims particularly the media workers..

“He asked me to help find your colleagues until I found them in a shallow grave in Sitio Masalay, Barangay Salman, Ampatuan town, the engine of back hoe was still running when I reached the site, that thing I cannot forget in my whole life” he added.

The Ampatuan massacre in November 2009 is considered the worst election-related violence in Philippine history.

Ibrahim recalled being with Binay and Duterte in the same flight to Davao where the vice president asked him to run for ARMM governor under UNA.

He rejected Binay’s offer and said that if he would run, he would do so as an independent. (Ferdinandh Cabrera/MindaNews)

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  1. BEFORE, Mindanao and the Vizayas cry for a SOLID SOUTH. Now, LUZON cries for a SOLID NORTH, too. Soon, it will be SOLID PHILIPPINES for DUTERTE!


    ATTY. JV Bautista must be dreaming! For one, he said that the upcoming elections will be between VP Jejomar Binay and Sec. Mar Roxas. Reasons? Because VP Binay has already CALCULATED the support of at least 12.5 POOR Filipinos. He’s got political machinery to boot and besides, he has already walloped the Liberal Party candidate before.

    LET ME deal with the TRUE state on the grounds first. In 2010, Makati City Mayor Binay was running against a more survey-popular Sen. Roxas. It really helped that former Pres. Joseph Estrada was his presidential runningmate who could still command popular votes despite his plunder conviction. Mayor Binay has more than 500 sisterhood cities and municipalities earlier established methodically by the Makati City government for purposes of political connections. And, he has the Boy Scouts of the Philippines as well as his college fraternity in UP, the Alpha Phi Omega, behind his bid for the vice-presidency.

    SO FROM barely 10% a year before the actual polls, he overtook Sen. Roxas by a little less than 1% (37.2% to 37% / SWS May 2-3 Survey). In the exit polls, Mayor Binay even edged out Sen. Roxas by over 3% (42.52% to 39.17% / SWS Exit Poll). In the end, Mayor Binay settled at 41.65% with a nominal vote numbering around 14.64 million over Sen. Roxas’ 39.58% with 13.91 million votes. Against this electoral backdrop in 2010, Mayor Jejomar C. Binay Sr. rose to become the 15th vice-president of the country.

    BUT WILL his electoral machinery hold through this time around? Based on sound calculations, I DON’T think so. His latest SWS poll survey standing CANNOT support the UNA contention of a rematch between VP Binay and his peeve opponent Sec. Roxas. Let’s take a look at their poll numbers: As of the March 30-April 2 SWS quarterly survey, VP Binay scored 20% while Sec. Roxas got around 18%. The new frontrunner Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte garnered 27% while Sen. Grace Poe nosedived to around 23%. For the ordinary Filipino voters, the poll survey standing among candidates seems to INDICATE definitive electoral chances. Among veteran campaigners, however, that’s far from the truth. Political machinery STILL matters especially in a very tight electoral contest.

    BY TRADITION, the established political parties (usually the ruling as well as opposition) have built-in electoral advantages. Prof. Rigoberto Tiglao, a political think-tank under the Arroyo administration, explained at length the more definitive points creditable to the parties with fully-rolled out machinery across the country. He is in fact very liberal about giving the ruling as well as the opposition parties at MOST 10% for political machinery alone and ONLY 5% to the independent albeit more popular wannabes like Mayor Duterte and Sen. Poe.

    HENCE, IF we factor in the 10% value added from the established political machinery of VP Binay, he’ll more likely obtain 10% more in the actual share of votes cast. In effect, he’ll get at least 30%. Meanwhile, Sec. Roxas will settle at 28% or 2% less than his erstwhile rival’s probable votes. Almost a year ago, we have made a tentative plot on the vice president’s chances to be elected. At that time, Mayor Duterte’s numbers were painfully negligible. Then, he had not made up his mind yet. So to cut to the chase, VP Binay NOW (with Mayor Duterte in the equation) will most PROBABLY obtain at least 12.15 million votes as opposed to Sec. Roxas’ 11.34 million votes. NOTE that if it were a rematch between these two establishment candidates, VP Binay will lead Sec. Roxas by a margin of 810,000 votes. Again, the fundamental premise here is a REMATCH election NOT a presidential contests of at least 4 major contenders!

    BUT THE prevailing reality is TOTALLY different. This is where Atty. Bautista’s calculation FAILS. For the TRUTH is, ONLY Mayor Duterte has the strongest electoral momentum compared to the other candidates. The UPWARD SURGE is in fact bewildering and extra-ordinary. Mayor Duterte’s numbers have consistently increased through time until he unilaterally SNAGGED out Sen. Poe’s lead in the latest polling. The other survey outfits likewise posted similar results. The latest Pulse Asia surveys (March 29-April 3) have Mayor Duterte ahead of Sen. Poe by 5% or 30% to the latter’s 25% while the Standard-Laylo Survey Report placed the mayor at a solo lead over the lady senator. Even Ed Malay’s Issues and Advocacy Center took note of Mayor Duterte’s resurgent rally in the polls. Although the survey methodology is quite unorthodox, the Seven-Eleven’s over 1,500 outlets nationwide have Mayor Duterte leading the others by the miles!

    THIS IS not to downplay Atty. Bautista’s forecasting abilities but only to set straight the current poll standing among presidential candidates in the race. So when he said that it will be a rematch between VP Binay and Sec. Roxas, red flags automatically surfaced all over. In short, VP Binay’ camp is already counting the eggs even before they are hatched! UNA has probably forgotten that VP Binay’s chances have seriously taken an irreversible dip since the revival of the corruption cases against him and his family. TODAY, Mayor Duterte’s standing in the preferential surveys appears SOLID and there seems to be no indication that his numbers will suffer a RELAPSE!

    THUS IF the elections were to be held today, Mayor Duterte will lead VP Binay by approximately 810,000 votes, the latter’s claimed lead over Sec. Roxas. Relative to Sen.Poe, Mayor Duterte will have a commanding lead of over 1.62 million votes. Even if Iglesia ni Cristo, with over 1.3 million command votes, endorses Sen. Poe, the resurgent frontrunner Mayor Duterte will STILL lead the senator by the slimmest of margin in the entire history of Philippine presidential elections. Note here that ONLY 5% of political machinery points are added to the total votes for either Mayor Duterte and Sen. Poe. Both have only recently forged their grassroots networks and maybe, Sen. Poe has a slight advantage on this score due to the NPC endorsement. The NPC, a political party founded by crony capitalist cum coco-levy thief Danding Cojuangco, currently has 2 senators, 47 representatives, 14 governors and 22 city mayors, making it as one of the 3 dominant political parties in this elections.

    SO WHY will VP Binay lose to Mayor Duterte by less than a million votes? For one thing, the projected 12.1 million poor Filipino votes credited by Atty. Bautista no longer represent the vice-president’s electoral base today. Mayor Duterte and Sen. Poe have already broken VP Binay’s class D and E voters since the start of the campaign. Even the electoral figure cited by UNA party is OUTDATED. The total population back in 2010 is 97 million with around 50.65 million voters. The latest COMELEC data of biometrically-registered voters numbered around 54.6 million and over HALF or 52% belong to the millennial or young voters. More than a qualified majority of this new set of young voters, or nearly 3.95 million, have signified their support to Mayor Duterte while the rest are parcelled out proportionally to Sen. Poe, Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Sec. Roxas and the least, VP Binay.

    ANOTHER REASON is the OFW’s rising interest to participate in the presidential elections. As of the latest count by the poll body, around 1.3 million overseas Filipinos have registered or approximately 400,000 more voting OFWs. Based on the on-line surveys (December 15-20, 2015) conducted by the Dubai-based expats magazine, Illustrado, an overwhelming number or 87% intend to vote for Mayor Duterte. Respondents represent 5,000 survey samples from 92 countries. Roughly computed at an extrapolated 23.27% voters’ turn-out (based on the 16.11% voters’ turn-out for 2013), Mayor Duterte will most like garner around 302,510 OFW votes. But that’s not the ONLY point. The fact that OFW votes have multiplier effects to their respective families back in the Philippines, the number of electoral votes in favor of the mayor will go as high as 907,530 votes – enough to sweep VP Binay, a former Presidential Adviser on OFW Concerns, AWAY from the palace!

    AS CEBU COMES in droves for Mayor Duterte, VP Binay’s chances further become NIL. Just yesterday, one of the UNA founding members Rep. Gwen Garcia, FINALLY joined the bandwagon for Cebu’s most probable president-in-waiting, Mayor Duterte, and DITCHED VP Binay for good! The OVERWHELMING clamor is so intense to ignore, if not CONTRADICT, she said. A couple of weeks ago, former Pres. Estrada, an UNA coalition stalwart, likewise DITCHED VP Binay for Sen. Poe. More local politicians are now forming a bee line towards PDP-Laban, former Sen. Aquilino Pimentel Jr.’s party, and swear to DITCH the vice-president as well.

    ACROSS ALL geographic sectors, the Filipino voters are likewise ENERGIZED by the prospect of a Duterte presidency. What used to be VP Binay’s electoral base in Mindanao is now a memory – a much-glorified thing of the past – that’s best remembered by him in the years to come. Even the SOLID north is NO LONGER upbeat about him, as Mayor Duterte and Sen. Poe take turns clobbering him in their respective campaign sorties. Thus whatever is left of the DARK horse in the race is now turning gray – moribund, beaten, sinking and gasping for its last dying breath as the actual moment of reckoning gets closer by the day!

    BACK IN campus, I admire Atty. Bautista for his fire brand sagacity, his grant-no-quarter mien in the face of baton and/or gun-wielding cops during parliamentary rallies. In my pantheon of activist heroes, he is right there near the top – BRAZEN and BOLD like TROKSKY and LENIN. I saw him rose to the podium in the Lower House to fight for the oppressed while I sat at the gallery totally mesmerized. I saw him pound the table without his lawyer’s suit to illustrate a point and even witnessed him debate with some distinguished senators. Through it all, I admired his guts like no other UNTIL now.

    FROM WHERE I stand, Atty. Bautista has sunk lower than what he deserves. His blind loyalty to VP Binay is incredulously of manic proportion. He will seize every ounce of opportunity to extol the questionable VIRTUES of his candidate. Legally, it is his right as counsel for the veep; politically, it is his right as UNA spokesman. BUT morally, it is NOT his right to BURY the statistical TRUTH in the guise of scientific analysis. He has GONE too far in his frenzied drive to deceive the voters and for all we know, even himself and the vice-president.

    THE WAY it is right now, it seems NOTHING can STOP the FIGHTINGEST frontrunner to take the presidency by storm! As pundits are wont to say it, anyone can prevent a flood from swamping the entire metropolitan Manila, but NO ONE – not even Sen. Grace Poe, Sec. Mar Roxas or VP Binay himself- can PREVENT Mayor Rodrigo Roa Duterte from RISING to SEIZE the iron throne!

  3. VP Binay says evidence is weak just like he claims evidence against his corruption is weak too. This high and mighty man doesn’t have a sense of justice indeed!


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