MALAYBALAY CITY (MindaNews / 07 March) – Surveys, if done with a reliable, scientific methodology, serve as a good indicator of the public pulse. Their importance hasn’t escaped politicians particularly those gunning for national positions that they would spend sums on it to gauge their chances at the polls.
For this year’s general elections, several surveys until recently have shown former senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. leading the pack of presidential candidates by a comfortable margin. Vice President Leni Robredo came in second. If these results are to be believed, it would be the first time for the country to have a majority president under the current multi-party system.
Events on the ground though tend to put doubts on the integrity of these surveys. The huge crowds and massive outpouring of voluntary support for Robredo during rallies in several cities and provinces have raised questions whether such surveys really reflect the likely outcome come May 9. In short, the statistics and the presence of warm bodies don’t match.
Besides, surveys among students in several universities showed an opposite trend, that is, Robredo ahead with an insurmountable lead. Given the number of young voters, and granting most of them would be able to cast their ballots, this demographic group may yet play a pivotal role on election day.
Even a number of academe-based experts have cautioned the public that not all surveys represent reality. They pointed out, for instance, that the choice of respondents (which might include trolls either through intent or accident) and the manner with which the questions are phrased could affect the results. In fact, survey firms have been challenged to divulge their methodologies as well as, the individuals or groups that commission them.
Aside from the Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia there are new, relatively unknown firms conducting pre-election surveys. (Are political surveys becoming the new cottage industry?)
Since survey results somehow influence people’s behavior towards an exercise of profound public significance these firms are duty-bound to open themselves up to scrutiny. That should erase perceptions that the results are tailored-fit to the wishes of their clients.
(MindaViews is the opinion section of MindaNews. H. Marcos C. Mordeno can be reached at hmcmordeno@gmail.com.)
