Binay tops as “Presidentiable” but where is Duterte?  

DAVAO CITY (MindaNews/30 Sept) – Vice President Jejomar Binay still tops the list in Pulse Asia’s September 8-15 nationwide survey of “Presidentiables” in the 2016 elections with 31% followed by Local Governments Secretary Mar Roxas (13%), Senator Miriam-Defensor Santiago (11%) and a tie between Senator Grace Poe and Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada at 10% for the fifth place.

Curiously, however, Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte is not on the list of 15 “Presidentiables” even as signature campaigns nationwide have been launched to push him to run for the top post.

In Mindanao, the Pulse Asia ranking of “Presidentiables” is Binay (33%), Roxas (19%), Estrada (14%), Poe (8%) and Santiago (5%).

Pulse Asia asked 1,200 respondents nationwide this question during the September 8-15 survey: “Of the people on this list, whom would you vote for as President of the Philippines if the 2016 elections were held today and they were candidates? You may mention others not included in this list.” A similar question was asked for the choice for Vice President.

The ranking for “Presidentiable” in the National Capital Region is Binay-Santiago- Poe-Estrada/Roxas; in Balance of Luzon it’s Binay-Santiago-Estrada-Poe-Roxas; and in Visayas it’s Binay-Roxas, Poe-Santiago-Estrada.

Not listed

MindaNews e-mailed Pulse Asia why Duterte’s name was not on the list.

Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia Research President, replied: “prior to the conduct of the survey, Mayor Duterte repeatedly and categorically mentioned that he did not intend to run as President. As to the Vice Presidential race, the report that Sen. Santiago was considering Duterte as prospective running mate came out when we were already on field work.”

Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte:  not listed  as possible Presidential candidate in the Pulse Asia survey of September 8-15, 2014. MindaNews file photo by Toto Lozano
Whys is Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte’ name not listed among possible Presidential candidate in the Pulse Asia survey of September 8-15, 2014?  MindaNews file photo by Toto Lozano

Santiago told Senate reporters on September 10 that her first choice for running mate is Duterte as “he will make an excellent Vice President for enforcement.”

When Pulse Asia released the survey results on September 29, the accompanying press statement said “Pulse Asia Research’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data.”

It added that “in keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia Research undertakes Ulat ng Bayan surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.”

Whose listing?

MindNews clarified through a second e-mail on who decides on the listing and how does one qualify to be on the list. It also asked if Duterte’s statements that he does not intend to run for President or Vice President eliminate him from being listed as possible candidate, and if the 15 on the list of Presidentiables categorically said they’d run for President.

Holmes said “the academic group of Pulse, myself, our research director and academic fellows, decide the listing.”

“We normally review published reports (from national media)  and include the  personalities who have expressed the intent to run, were named by organizations/parties as prospective standard bearers, and those who could be considered as prospective presidential and vice presidential candidates.   We identify potential candidates for all the major ‘parties’ (e.g., LP, NP, UNA, Lakas) including possible independents who may be adopted by or run under new parties.”

Holmes said the repeated declaration of Duterte that he will not vie for a national position “led us to decide to take his name out in the September 2014 survey.”

He added that “depending on developments leading up to the December survey, we may or may not include him in the next round.”

Holmes also said “only one personality, VP Binay has categorically said he will run as president. A few (Roxas, Cayetano) are known to be open to vie for a national position while the others have been identified as potential candidates by their parties.  Some, like Poe and Robredo (in recent reports), expressed that they are not ready for higher national positions.”

He said the list of prospective candidates has changed from survey to survey.

15 “Presidentiables,” 11 Vice

The 15 persons listed by Pulse Asia for the survey on Presidential preference are: Binay, Roxas, Santiago, Poe, Estrada, Senator Francis Escudero, Senator Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., former Vice President Noli de Castro, former Senator Richard Gordon, Presidential Assistant for Rehabilitation and Recovery and former Senator Panfilo Lacson, Senator Allan Peter Cayetano, Bicol Rep. Leni Robredo, Senator Bong Revilla, Senate President Franklin Drilon and Presidential Assistant for Food Security and Agricultural Modernization Francis Pangilinan.

In the June 2014 survey, Pulse Asia listed only 11. The four additions to the September 2014 survey for President are de Castro, Robredo, Lacson, and Pangilinan.

In the survey on preference for Vice President, Poe topped the list of 11 at 31% nationwide, followed by Escudero (19%), Cayetano (9%), Senator Antonio Trillanes IV (7%) and Marcos (6%).

In Mindanao, the top five ranking is the same as the nationwide ranking: Poe (29%), Escudero (23%), Cayetano (11%), Trillanes (8%) and Marcos (3%).

The six other names on the list are: Batangas Governor Vilma Santos, Senator Jinggoy Estrada, Drilon, Revilla, Robredo and tycoon Manuel V. Pangilinan.

Pangilinan’s name was the only addition to the September survey on the Vice Presidency. (Carolyn O. Arguillas / MindaNews)