Duterte tops in Mindanao; ties 3rd with Erap in nationwide survey of ‘Presidentiables’

DAVAO CITY (MindaNews / 18 March) – Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte topped the March 1-7 survey in Mindanao of “Presidentiables” in the 2016 elections with 34% but ranked third nationwide in a tie with former President, now Manila mayor Joseph Estrada (12%), with Vice President Jejomar Binay still on top of the list at 29% followed by Senator Grace Poe’s 14%.

Duterte also topped the survey for “Vice Presidentiables” in Mindanao with 25% but ranked fourth nationwide in a tie with Senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr. at 11% compared with Senator Poe’s 29%, Senator Francis Escudero’s 16%, and Senator Alan Peter Cayetano’s 13%.

It was the first time Duterte’s name came up in a Pulse Asia survey on the 2016 polls. The poll body had released nationwide surveys on the 2016 polls in June, September and December 2014 but his name was not included even as signature campaigns nationwide had been launched to push him to run for the top post.

“Listening tour”

In the March 2015 survey on “Presidentiables,” Duterte, who has been going around the country starting January for a “listening tour” on federalism, is now ahead of Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago (9%), Senator Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. (6%), Local Governments Secretary Mar Roxas and Senator Francis Escudero (4%), Senator Allan Peter Cayetano (3%), Senator Antonio Trillanes (2%) and former Senators Panfilo Lacson and Richard Gordon at 1%.

MindaNews e-mailed Pulse Asia in September why Duterte’s name was not on the list of at least 15 persons for the Presidency.

Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia Research President, replied: “Prior to the conduct of the survey, Mayor Duterte repeatedly and categorically mentioned that he did not intend to run as President.”

MindaNews clarified through a second e-mail on who decides on the listing and how does one qualify to be on the list. It also asked if Duterte’s statements that he does not intend to run for President or Vice President eliminate him from being listed as possible candidate, and if the 15 on the list of Presidentiables categorically said they’d run for President.

Holmes said “the academic group of Pulse, myself, our research director and academic fellows, decide the listing.”

“We normally review published reports (from national media) and include the personalities who have expressed the intent to run, were named by organizations/parties as prospective standard bearers, and those who could be considered as prospective presidential and vice presidential candidates. We identify potential candidates for all the major ‘parties’ (e.g., LP, NP, UNA, Lakas) including possible independents who may be adopted by or run under new parties.”

Holmes said the repeated declaration of Duterte that he will not vie for a national position “led us to decide to take his name out in the September 2014 survey.”

Ranking nationwide

Binay ranked first overall in the entire Philippines, divided into National Capital Region, Balance of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Binay lost in Mindanao, garnering only 22% against Duterte’s 34%. But Binay topped in the entire Philippines (29%), in NCR (26%), and in Visayas (35%).

The “Presidentiables” from Visayas – Santiago and Roxas – got only 14% and 8%, respectively. Poe followed Binay with 16% while Duterte ranked fourth in the Visayas with 9%, one per cent higher than Roxas.

In Mindanao, Duterte topped at 34% followed by Binay’s 22%, Estrada’s 18% and Poe’s 11%.

In the NCR, Binay topped at 26% followed by Poe at 18%, Santiago at 15% and Duterte and Estrada at 7%.

In the Balance of Luzon, Binay topped at 32% followed by Estrada at 14%, Poe at 13%, Marcos at 9%, Santiago at 8% and Duterte ranking 6thalong with Roxas.

Classes A to E

In terms of economic classes, Binay topped in all cases from A to E. Binay won 22% in the ABC classes, followed by Duterte’s 21%, Poe’s and Marcos’ 12% and Santiago’s 9%.

Among the Class D, Binay still topped with 30% followed by Poe (15%), Estrada (12%) and Duterte (11%).

Among the Class E, Binay again topped, at 33%, followed by Estrada’s 15%, Poe’s 13% and Duterte’s and Santiago’s 10%.

Pulse Asia asked 1,200 respondents nationwide this question during the electoral poll surveys: “Of the people on this list, whom would you vote for as President of the Philippines if the 2016 elections were held today and they were candidates? You may mention others not included in this list.” A similar question was asked for the choice for Vice President.