ITCZ affecting Mindanao, Visayas

DAVAO CITY (MindaNews / 16 August) — Cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and isolated thunderstorms will be experienced over the regions of Northern Mindanao, Caraga & Davao and Eastern and Central Visayas due to the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) across Visayas and Mindanao, the weather bureau said in its 24-hour public weather forecast issued at 5 a.m. Sunday.

Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms will prevail over the rest of Mindanao, the advisory of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said.

Winds will be light to moderate coming from the south to southwest and the coastal waters will be slight to moderate, it added.

Meanwhile, moderate El Niño conditions continue to persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Leading climate models suggest that it may intensify from moderate to strong El Niño in the coming months in the last quarter of 2015 and may last until early 2016, the El Nino Advisory No 6 issued on August 5, said.

The advisory said analysis of rainfall distribution for the month of July showed that near to above normal rainfall were observed over Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Ilocos Region, Central and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, Romblon, Albay, Palawan, Negros Island Region, southern section of Cebu, and two Mindanao regions — Western and Central Mindanao.

The rest of the country experienced below to way below normal rainfall conditions especially the eastern section of the Philippines, which is a clear manifestation of the impacts of El Niño in the country, it said.

The advisory also noted that two Mindanao provinces are affected by drought – Camiguin and Misamis Oriental, along with Bohol, Quezon and Siquijor.

The advisory defined drought as “three consecutive months of way below normal (>60% reduction from average) or five consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction from average) rainfall condition.

It said weather systems that are likely to affect the country in August are the SW monsoon, the ITCZ, LPAs (low pressure area), monsoon trough and the occurrence of two to four tropical cyclones in the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

The advisory said rainfall distribution is expected to be near normal in most parts of the country, while below normal rainfall is predicted over the provinces of Palawan, Camarines Norte, Guimaras, Negros Island region, Central Visayas and Mindanao’s Zamboanga Peninsula, Region XII (Southwestern Mindanao) and the Autonmous Region in Muslim Mindanao except Cotabato and Lanao del Sur respectively. Above normal rainfall are likely to be received in Samar provinces and Misamis Oriental, it said.

The provinces of Cagayan and Isabela will likely experience drought/dry spell while provinces affected by drought/dry spell are likely to improve namely: Aurora, Camiguin, Catanduanes, Laguna, Marinduque, Misamis Oriental, Occidental Mindoro, Quezon, Quirino and Siquijor. (MindaNews)