Duterte tops SWS nationwide survey at 38%, from 16% in September

DAVAO CITY (MindaNews/07 December) – Presidential aspirant and Davao City mayor Rodrigo Duterte topped a Social Weather Stations (SWS) commissioned nationwide survey on voters’ preference for President with 38% as of the survey period conducted on November 26 to 28.

Duterte’s rating more than doubled, from 16% in the September 2015 survey of SWS to 38% in the survey that ended on November 28, two days before he cursed Pope Francis in a speech following his official proclamation as standard bearer of the Partido ng Demokratikong Pilipino (PDP-Laban) at the Century Park hotel in Manila.

07sws11The other presidential aspirants – Vice President Jejomar Binay and Senator Grace Poe, tied at 21%. Administration bet and former Local Governments Secretary Mar Roxas got 15% while Miriam Santiago at 4% and 1% undecided.

Poe, however, registered a higher preference rating than Duterte’s 38% in the second quarter SWS survey in June and the third quarter survey in September, with 42% and 47%, respectively.

Roxas surpassed Duterte’s 38% in November with 39% in September 2015. Roxas was then second to Poe’s 47%.

Binay’s highest rating was in December 2014, at 37%/

The SWS November 2015 Nationwide Survey on Voter Preferences or “Project ROD 11-15) was commissioned by Davao City-based businessman William J. Lima. The SWS posted the “strictly confidential” findings on its website on Monday morning, December 7, after Lima authorized its release to the public.

“In view of a sponsor-authorized release of a commissioned survey, SWS is disclosing the survey’s pertinent results and technical details, for the benefit of the public,” the SWS said in its note on the latest survey.

Hogging the headlines

MindaNews noted that the week of the survey had Duterte hogging the headlines in print, radio, television and online that week.

Dismayed over the 5-4 decision of the Senate Electoral Tribunal (SET) that Senator Grace Poe is a qualified presidential candidate, Duterte  told reporters in Dasmarinas, Cavite on November 21 that he would run for President.

“I am running for President because I am disappointed and sad sa ruling na yan,” Duterte said.

The start of the commissioned survey on November 26 coincided with national media reporting that Duterte topped a November 11-12 Pulse Asia survey of preferred presidential candidates in the National Capital Region (NCR or Metro Manila), at 34%.

On November 27, the second day of the survey, Duterte withdrew his certificate of candidacy (COC) for mayor at the Commission on Elections in Davao City and had his lawyer file his COC for President at the Comelec in Manila.

In the November 26-28 survey, all 1,200 respondents in the SWS survey were shown a list and asked “Kasama dito si Rodrigo Duterte bilang isang substitute candidate sa Presidente. Sa mga sumusunod na pangalan sa listahang ito, sino po ang malamang ninyong iboboto bilang Presidente ng Pilipinas, kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon?” (Included in this list is Rodrigo Duterte as substitute candidate for President. Among the names on this list, who will you likely vote for President of the Philippines if the elections were held today?)

07sws22Duterte topped the race in all four geographical areas — the National Capital Region (Metro Manila), Visayas and Mindanao, and was in a statistical tie in the Balance of Luzon with 26%, against Poe’s 28% and Binay’s 27%. Roxas got 14% and Santiago, 5%.

In the NCR or Metro Manila, where Duterte recently topped a Pulse Asia survey at 34%, Duterte led the SWS survey at 48% followed by Poe’s 22%, Binay’s 18%, Roxas’ 3% and Santiago’s 4%.

According to the Comelec website, the NCR has 6.17 million registered voters as of the October 2013 barangay election.

In Mindanao, Duterte, a Mindanawon, got the highest lead at 50%, followed by Binay’s 18%, Roxas’ 16%, Poe’s 13%, and Santiago’s 2%.

In the Visayas, the supposed bailiwicks of Roxas and Santiago, Duterte led the race with 44%, followed by Roxas’ 20%, Poe’s 16%, Binay’s 14% and Santiago’s 5%.

Across socieo-economic classes

Duterte, whom his daughter Sara described as “intelligent enough for the highest public position” but “with the manners of a street thug” when she apologized for her father’s cursing the Pope, also topped all socioeconomic classes – ABC, D and E — earning higher approval at 62% from among the ABC classes, compared with 37% from the D class and 32% from the E class.

Whether or not the cursing will affect Duterte’s standing nationwide will be known only in the next surveys.

Among the ABC classes, Binay was the choice of only 16%, Poe by 13%, Roxas by 6% and Santiago by 1%.

Among the D class, Duterte’s 37% was followed by Poe’s 22%, Binay’s 21%, Roxas’ 15% and Santiago’s 4%.

Among the E class, Duterte’s 32% was followed by Binays’ 26%, Poe’s 20%, Roxas’ 17% and Santiago’s 5.

From 5% to 38%

In the SWS nationwide survey on the “best leaders to succeed Pres. Noynoy Aquino in 2016,” where respondents were not provided a list but allowed to give three names,” Poe, Roxas and Binay took the top spots in the people’s recommended successors, in the third quarter survey conducted from September 2 to 5.

Poe got 47% followed by Roxas’ 39%, Binay’s 35%, Duterte’s 16% and Santiago’s 2%.

07sws33In a similar survey conducted on the second quarter, from June 5-8, Poe led the race with 42%, followed by Binay’s 34%, Roxas’ 21%, Duterte’s 20% and Santiago’s 4%.

In the first quarter survey conducted in March, Binay topped the race with 36% followed by Poe’s 31%, with Roxas and Duterte tying at 15% and Santiago at 11%.

In the last quarter survey of December 2014, Binay topped the race at 37% followed by Poe’s 21%, Roxas’ 19%, Santiago’s 10% and Duterte’s 5%.

The SWS survey on November 26 to 28 used face-to-face interviews of 1,200 registered voters divided into random samples of 300 each in Metro Manila, Balance of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao with a sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages, and ±6% for Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

The Pulse Asia survey on November 11-12 in the NCR was commissioned by “a private group that is supportive of Duterte’s candidacy,” Pulse Asia said. It involved 300 respondents and a margin of error of plus or minus 6 per cent. (Carolyn O. Arguillas / MindaNews)