DAVAO CITY (MindaNews / 20 March) — The race to elect 12 senators in the May 13, 2019 elections is on and four Mindanawons are in the ‘Magic 12’ among 58 possible contenders topped by reelectionist Senator Grace Poe (70.8%), Pulse Asia’s Ulat ng Bayan survey on March 23 – 28 shows.
Pulse Asia noted that only 15 of the 58 names listed in the senatorial probe survey would have had a “statistical chance of winning” if the elections had been held during the survey period, among them Davao City Mayor and Presidential daughter Sara Duterte (43.8%), Senate President Aquilino Pimentel III (39.8%), People’s Television host Erwin Tulfo (36.7%) and retired Philippine National Police director, now Bureau of Corrections chief Ronald dela Rosa (31.1%).
“More than half of Filipinos (57%) already support 12 senatorial bets for the May 2019 elections” and 15 of the 58 on the survey list have a “statistical chance of winning,” Pulse Asia said. Survey results show Poe as the leading candidate (70.8% voting) with a statistical ranking of solo first place, followed by reelectionist Senator Cynthia Villar (55.6%), former Senator and now Taguig Rep. Pia Cayetano (53.8%) and reelectionist Senator Nancy Binay (45.8%).
Villar and Cayetano’s statistical ranking is 2nd to 3rd place while Binay’s is 4th to 6th.
Also with a “statistical chance of winning” are reelectionist Senator Edgardo “Sonny” Angara, Jr. (44.9%), Sara Duterte (43.8%), Pimentel (39.8%), former Senator Sergio Osmena (38.0%), Tulfo (36.7%), former Senator Lito Lapid (33.8%), Dela Rosa (33.1%), former Senator Jinggoy Estrada (32.8%), Ilocos Norte Governor Imee Marcos (32.2%), reelectionist Senators Paolo Benigno Aquino (30.5%), and JV Ejercito (29.%).
Angara and Duterte share 4th to 7th place, Pimentel 5th to 9th, Osmena 7th to 12th, Tulfo 7th to 13th, Lapid, dela Rosa and Estrada tied at 8th to 15th.
Marcos’s statistical ranking is 9th to 15th place, while Aquino and Ejercito are ranked 10th to 19th.
Six other Mindanawons listed in the survey as among possible senatorial candidates are former Senator Teofisto Guingona III (17.5% voting) with statistical ranking of 20th to 25th places; Davao City 1st district Rep. Karlo Nograles (10.6%) at 24th to 32nd; Communications Secretary Marin Andanar (8.4%) and former Surigao del Sur Rep. Prospero Pichay (8.0%) at 27th to 37th; Special Assistant to the President Christopher Lawrence “Bong” Go (5.9%) at 28th to 38th, and the lone Moro listed — Secretary Guiling Mamondiong, Director-General of the Technical Education and Skills Development Authority (0.4%) at 46th to 58th place.
Former Senator Manuel Roxas, who ran for President in 2016, got 25.4% and is ranked 14th to 19th, the ranking shared by action star Robin Padilla (26.2%), Quezon City Mayor Herbert Bautista (26.2%) and ABS-CBN’s news anchor and public affairs host Ted Failon (25.6%).
Presidential Spokesperson Harry Roque (8.7%) is ranked 27th to 36th while Communications Assistant Secretary Mocha Uson (1.3%), tied with former Agrarian Reform Secretary Rafael Mariano (1.3%), both with a statistical ranking of 40th to 56th.
The survey results were released Friday, a day after Senate President and PDP-Laban President Pimentel released the names of 20 persons the party is considering to field in the May 2019 senatorial elections.
The 20 bets are himself, the five reelectionist senators belonging to the majority bloc — Poe, Villar, Binay, Ejercito, and Angara; Roque, Go, Uson, Presidential Adviser on Political Affairs Francis Tolentino, Pia Cayetano, Surigao del Norte Rep. Ace Barbers, Karlo Nograles, Alfredo Benitez, Zajid “Dong” Mangudadatu, Geraldine Roman, Rey Umali, former Interior Secretary Rafael Alunan, singer Freddie Aguilar, and television reporter Jiggy Manicad of GMA News.
Of Pimentel’s 20 bets, only seven are among the 15 listed by Pulse Asia as having a “statistical chance of winning” as of March 2018: Pimentel, Poe, Villar, Binay, Ejercito, Angara and Cayetano.
The other PDP-Laban bets and how they fared in the Pulse Asia survey: Tolentino (14.6%) at 20th to 26th place, Nograles (10.6%) at 24th to 32nd place, Roque (8.7%) at 27th to 36th; Go (5.9%) at 28th to 38th, Benitez (3.7%) at 36th to 42nd, Umali (2.8%) at 38th to 50th; Alunan (1.8%) at 39th to 55th place; Uson (1.3%) at 40th to 56th; Roman (0.2%) at 52nd to 58th. Aguilar, Barbers, Mangudadatu, Manicad were not among the 58 names listed in the Pulse Asia survey.
Pimentel’s list of 20 has five Mindanawons: himself, Nograles, Go, Barbers and Mangudadatu.
Mayor Duterte has repeatedly declared she is not interested in running for the Senate even as she ranked 9th among preferred senatorial candidates in a Social Weather Stations (SWS) survery in December 2017 and 5th to 6th in the Laylo Research in November 2017.
The nationwide Pulse Asia survey was based on a sample of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above, with a plus or minus 3% error margin at the 95% confidence level and an error margin at plus or minus 6%f for Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao, also at 95% confidence level.
The respondents were asked: “If elections were held today, who among these personalities will you vote for if they run for the Senate? You can choose up to 12 names.” (Carolyn O. Arguillas / MindaNews)