El Niño forecast: Drought to hit 9 provinces in Mindanao

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DAVAO CITY (MindaNews/12 January) – Nine provinces in Mindanao will be hit by drought with the probable occurrence of the El Niño in the first quarter of the year, state weather bureau PAGASA said Thursday in its Climate Outlook for January-June 2019.

PAGASA said the drought will affect Bukidnon, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Sulu, Zamboanga del Sur and Zamboanga Sibugay.

The prediction was based on PAGASA’s December 17, 2018 rainfall assessment and forecast for January-March 2019.

The extreme weather phenomenon will also affect 38 other provinces in the Visayas and Luzon.

Source: PAGASA

In the North, the drought will hit Northern Luzon, Metro Manila, MIMAROPA Region and parts of Bicol Region.

Davao Occidental, North Cotabato, South Cotabato, Sarangani and Sultan Kudarat provinces were included in the list of areas that will be hit by drought based on the rainfall assessment and forecast for January-February 2019. But they were listed as “Not Affected” based on the rainfall assessment and forecast for January – March 2019.

Camiguin, Tawi-Tawi, Zamboanga del Norte and eight provinces in the Visayas will experience dry spell, it said.

A dry condition will affect Surigao del Norte and Dinagat Islands along with Batanes, Camarines Norte, Laguna, Masbate, Quezon, Rizal and Romblon in Luzon, and Leyte, Southern Leyte and Biliran in the Visayas.

PAGASA defined drought as three consecutive months of way below normal rainfall (60 percent reduction from average) or five consecutive months of below normal rainfall condition (21 percent to 60 percent reduction from average).

Dry spell means three consecutive months of below normal rainfall (21 percent to 60 percent reduction from average) or two months of consecutive way below normal rainfall (more than 60 percent reduction from average).

Dry condition is defined as having two consecutive months of below normal rainfall (21-60 percent drop in average rainfall).

PAGASA said that while sea surface temperature (SST) has now reached El Niño levels, atmospheric indicators did not show consistent El Niño signal. But it warned that it has 70 to 80% chance of occurring.

PAG-ASA’s Climate Outlook, January to June 2019. Check here: https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climps/climateforum/climateoutlook.pdf

CHECK THIS: PAGASA’s Climate Outlook, January to June 2019

Switzerland’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also said that as of November 27, 2018, “the lack of a coupled atmosphere and ocean pattern means El Niño has not become established.”

“The chance of a full-fledged El Niño to be established during December 2018-February 2019 is estimated to be about 75 – 80%,” WMO added.

On December 13, 2018, the International Research Institute of the US said on Dec. 13, 2018 that “El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~90% chance) and through spring (~60% chance).”

“The El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, despite ocean temperatures being at El Niño levels,” Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said on Dec. 18, 2018. (H. Marcos C. Mordeno / MindaNews)

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